Burlington Stores will report Q1 earnings tomorrow before the market opens (7:45 AM ET last quarter) with a conference call to follow at 8:30 AM ET  

Current Cap IQ consensus estimates Q1 EPS of $1.25 (vs $1.26 in 2018) on revs of $1.62 bln (+6% Y/Y) with comps +0.4%

  • On April 23, BURL preannounced adj. EPS to be $1.21-1.25 on comps of flat to +0.5% vs prior expectation of $1.21-1.31 and comps of 0-2%

  • Q1 Revs are still expected to be +7-9% to ~$1.63-1.66 bln

  • BURL will provide Q2 guidance in the press release.

    • Current Cap IQ Consensus estimates Q2 EPS of $1.13 (vs $1.15 last year) on revs increase of 8.5% to $1.63 bln. Comps estimate of 2.7%.

  • BURL also may update FY 20 guidance which currently calls for $6.93-7.06 on revs +9-10% to ~$7.24-7.31 bln.

    • Comps expected to increase 2-3% in Q2, Q3, and Q4.

Last quarter, BURL beat on EPS, missed on revs, and provided downside EPS guidance. 

  • Comparable store sales increased 1.3% (guidance +2-3%), on top of a 5.9% increase last year.

    After initially gaining ~9% following the announcement of a new CEO, BURL shares have fallen in four consecutive weeks and is down ~14% in the last month. The 147 level will be key for the company to hold.

TECHS:

BURL has a $9.7 bln market cap and trades at a forward PE of 23x vs competitors TLRD (4.1 4.1x), KSS (11x), M (7.6x), and DBI (12x)

Short interest sits at ~5% of its ~66 mln float

TRADE: BURL JUN7 130P