February Week 2 Earnings

The following companies will report the week of February 7th 2016. Below we'll examine the detailed information set for most of these companies.


MONDAY


Monday kicks off a slew of earnings with a few of the names reporting before the open. Let's just examine their charts below since we will not have the ability to trade them prior to the open. Use the color codes in the pdf to give you the directional opinion for each of these names. Remember, if the entire block is highlighted red or green then it signifies an aggressively bullish or bearish sentiment. If the entire block is highlighted in yellow I have no bias on the issue. If the letters are highlighted red or green then I am bullish or bearish on that issue.


DO, FOXA, CTSH, ALSN


Some items to note: 

  1. DO
    • in a downtrend on the daily
    • Head and shoulder broke on monthly now sitting on 2004 support
    • Weekly downtrend
  2. FOXA
    • 2001 Support 
    • H&S Weekly
  3. CTSH: In an uptrend
  4. ALSN: Downtrend

YELP


This issue has not been able to get out of its own way for over a year now. Printing a fresh 52 week low with the horrendous report put out by LNKD on Thursday you would think the issue was due for a corrective bounce off oversold conditions. After further analysis however, that is far from the truth. 

The charts indicate this issue is not done making new lows. The only thing keeping the bottom from falling out is the 2013 support that sits just below these levels. Below that, we're looking at fresh all time lows on the issue. 

The company's previous ER's don't lend a helping hand either. Let's take a look below.

PREVIOUS ER

YELP Previous 4 quarters

As you can see above, the issue's Yr/Yr rev growth has been dwindling and the actual numbers have missed the last three quarters. On the surface this looks corrosive. 

GUIDANCE

From a guidance standpoint, things don't get much better as YELP kept their guidance in line for the quarter and upped its FY15 guidance. This would assume that the issue is in good standing, but to me, it creates a burden and a higher bar to get over.

ANALYST COVERAGE

Looking at targets from the analysts that cover the issue, it appears that there is a negative bias in the issue. However, There are enough "Neutral" stances that could accelerate the issue to the downside as analysts have to revise their price targets. Currently the average price target is ~$26.

NAIL IN THE COFFIN

As if we don't need another reason to short this piece of shit I looked into the the insiders positions on the stock. I'm just going to let the picture do the talking for me. 

IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THE CEO AND COO HAVE CASHED OUT THEIR POSITIONS IN YELP. THIS PLUS A SHIT CHART BAD SENTIMENT POOR MANAGEMENT AND POOR TECHNICALS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR YELP

I don't think I've ever seen a case where both the CEO and the COO have cashed out of their positions in a company. This really just drove it home for me. This doesn't eliminate the fact that we could have a fools rally to sucker in some idiots. My bias on this issue however is much lower. 

TRADE

Look to take the Feb 15.5 or the Mar 15 Puts on this one. Select the one that you feel most comfortable with in terms of risk tolerance. If you'd like to hedge you can look to add the Feb 20 C as a hedge to your position. 3/1 puts to calls ratio.

HARD SELL TARGET $7


BRS


BRS is stuck in a downtrend started in November of 2015. The issue is testing its 2009 lows and looks to lose 50% if/when the 2009 low is breached. 

BIAS: HARD SELL WITH 9 TARGET


QLYS


QLYS Has been in a solid downtrend for a few months now. Currently it is revisiting the July-October 2014 lows. My belief is we break down more here and head to test the 2014 lows of 20/share.

BIAS: SHORT/SELL WITH 20.4 TARGET


HAS


This is one of the most interesting setups out there. This issue appears as a bull flag on the monthly time frame but also appears to running into congestion on the weekly and daily time frame. My overall bias is to go long if/when 78 breaks. 

BIAS: NO TOUCH PRE ER

 


NAT


BIAS: STRONG SELL - MARCH 11 & 9 PUTS

USE 13 AS YOUR STOP


NAT Results:

  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.34 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.45.
  • Tanker rates achieved on average for 4Q2015 were about $39,800 per day per vessel. In 3Q2015 and 4Q2014 the spot rates were about $35,000 and $24,000 per day per ship, respectively.
  • The Company's operating cash flow in 4Q2015 was $57.2 mln. In 3Q2015 and 4Q2014 operating cash flow was $49.1 mln and $24.5 mln, respectively

Following its quarterly results, shares of Nordic American Tanker (NAT 11.26) sold off. The company reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, which fell short of expectations. On the top line, net voyage revenue rose 80% year/year to $77.39 million, which also fell short of expectations.

However, tanker rates achieved on average for 4Q2015 were about $39,800 per day per vessel. In 3Q2015 and 4Q2014 the spot rates were about $35,000 and $24,000 per day per ship, respectively.

Thanks to a cash breakeven rate below $12,000 per day per ship, a growing NAT Suezmax fleet and achieved spot rates of about $39,800 per day, 4Q2015 produced good results with operating cash flow of $57.2 million.

The company's operating cash flow in 4Q2015 was $57.2 million. In 3Q2015 and 4Q2014 operating cash flow was $49.1 million and $24.5 million, respectively. For the full year 2015 operating cash flow was $212 million -- the strongest year in NAT's history. The company has a fleet of 26 vessels of which two are under construction.

By way of comparison, in the autumn of 2004, the company had three vessels. NAT its vessels are in excellent technical condition. NAT maintains a strong balance sheet with low net debt and focuses on keeping low financial risk. At the end of 4Q2015, the Company had net debt of about $230 million or about $8.8 million per vessel. Overall liquidity in the stock is high compared with other tanker companies.


The issue started the day slightly strong and then started to fade. Later in the afternoon the CEO came on CNBC and provided the following insight, which was not provided in their report or on their call. 

  • NAT shares spiked following an interview with the company's CEO on CNBC and are now trading higher by 10%. CEO Herbjorn Hansson indicated that his shipping co is different than other cos.  He noted that the company has a break even shipping rate of $12K/day.  Co received $39-40/K per day in the last quarter.  All ships are cash flow positive.

BIAS: STRONG SELL - MARCH 11 & 9 PUTS

USE 13 AS YOUR STOP


PAA


BIAS: SELL


TUESDAY


Tuesday picks right where Monday left off and really sets up for another potential set of crappy ER reports for the most part. 

IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE SPX BOUNCED OFF SUPPORT MONDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE CLOSE. 

Be on the lookout for a continued push higher before the market gives up the ghost again. 


SALE


DOG SHIT.

DOG SHIT.

DOG SHIT.

Insanely high multiple for a company that makes no money and has a business model capitalizing on people who want coupons. As we've seen, retailers were abused the last few months and this company didn't follow. Instead It sat in a bear flag for 4 months. 

Great news for us. 

BIAS: SELL THE FUCK OUT OF IT.

TRADE: MARCH 7.5 PUTS JULY 5 PUTS


REGN


I intentionally did not publish the ER report before end of day on this one because it was my bias that the cost to play this report was a bit too high for my liking. Here's the technical basis: 

There is nothing bullish about these charts or the sentiment in the space. Unless this company has the cure for cancer in this earnings report I don't see a reason to go long here at these levels. 

BIAS: SELL 

TRADE: We will revisit this one tomorrow after the report. Current idea is:

REGN Weekly/next week 380 P  

REGN MAR 340 P/NEXT WEEK 410 C HEDGE

Make sure to double check tomorrow before the bell to see if any amendments have been made.


MAS


MAS appears to have broken its multi year trend and looks to be making a test towards its support line ~$22.6/share. A break of that support level will precipitate this more quickly to the downside. 

Earnings History:

MAS ER History 

Guidance:

Analyst Coverage:

Analysts are super bullish on this. Sets up for failure. 


WEN



GT



SAVE 



CVS



CALD


HARD SELL.


MKTO




PAYC


HARD SELL.

This one looks ugly. 

ER History:

PAYC ER history

Guidance:

Guidance History

They have upped revenue and revenue guidance the last four quarters and FY15. This is setting them up for failure. 

Analyst Coverage: 

Analysts are in love with the story. 

BIAS: SELL

TRADE:

FEB 22.5 P & MAR 25 P


DWRE


Abort. HARD SELL.


RKUS



SCTY


Another Wall Street darling that has been taken out back and beaten with a stick as of late. This one's metrics are crazy expensive. See the charts presented below for full outlook of this garbage.

This company has a habit of either missing EPS or coming in line. With their expectations calling for an 80%+ in earnings on the bottom line year over year and with it sitting at multiyear support this one is setting up for DOOM

ER History: 

ER History showing a steady increase year over year in revenue with the exception of Q1 2015 

Guidance: 

Revisions have been down 3/4 years. With input energy costs going down, it will be tough for these guys to grow.

Analysts:

Again, as a common theme for most, we've seen analysts remain steadfast in their "BUY" projections. Setting the bar high.

Most analysts that cover the stock are bullish. 

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: FEB WEEKLY 19 P 0.60ISH (full risk) FEB MONTHLY 24 P & MAR 16 P LOTTO (full risk)

HEDGE: MAR 32 C (If you wanna hedge)


NUAN


This story stock has broken down and is forming a H&S. This has a move to 13 in it. 

Earnings History:

The company slipped to a Yr/Yr Revenue deceleration.

Guidance:

The company has held FY16 guidance and Q1 guidance. Any drop in this and the stock will get taken to the woodshed.

Analysts: 

BRUH, THEY PLAYIN YOU BRUH.

ANALYSTS REMAIN STEADFAST IN THEIR REITERATION OF A BROKEN STOCK. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE.

BIAS: Head and Shoulders... HARD SELL.

 

 


AKAM



OTEX



PNRA


BIAS: (SLIGHTLY) Bullish.

As long as 178 does not break on PNRA this stock is in an inverse Head and Shoulders and is in a bullish pattern. Look for COMPS in the ER report to be a tell as to whether or not PNRA is taking CMG's lunch money (pun intended).

ER History:

Guidance:

Company has already lowered their outlook for FY15. Anything near/better will give the stock a boost. 

Analysts:

Analysts remain bullish on the name with the most recent upgrade coming from Maxim on 1/4.

TRADES:BUY THE BREAKOUT

OR

Buy the Feb 200 Calls Full Risk 

 


DIS


Disney has been the beneficiary of a Star Wars catalyst for over a year now. Prior to that there was frozen and ESPN/Subscribers. With the very real issue of cord cutting the stock set a double top back in the fall and and been on a precipitous landslide ever since. Investors have been holding the bag for the hope of a reversal of fortune due to the Star Wars catalyst. Now they find themselves in a predicament of misfortune where the stock sits on its 2015 breakout point and 2014 resistance. 

Disney (DIS) is set to report Q1'16 earnings after the bell this afternoon, at 4:15pm ET. The company has an earnings webcast scheduled to follow at 5:00pm ET, which can be found on their investor relations page of their website. Disney does not typically provide forward earnings or revenue guidance with its release or during its conference call.

Key Metrics

  • Current Capital IQ Consensus is for adj EPS of $1.44 on revenues +19% Y/Y to $14.75 bln.
  • FY16 Cap IQ Consensus is for adj EPS of $5.66 on revenues +7% to $56 bln.
  • Interesting fact: Disney has reported adjusted EPS above, or equal to (twice), Capital IQ Consensus every quarter since Q2 2011.
    • Last quarter, Disney beat on Q3 EPS of $1.20 ($1.14 Capital IQ Consensus) and reported in-line revenues of $13.51 bln.

The Hot Topics on Disney

  • Cable Networks (which is included in the Media Networks Segment) produced revenues of $15.1 bln in 2014. This accounted for ~31% of the company's revenues.
    • One of the largest concerns investors have about Disney is that services like Netflix, HULU, and Amazon Prime are going to create headwinds for cable subscriptions going forward as consumers "cut the cord." The fear is that if cable subscriptions face headwinds, so too does Disney's Cable Networks revenue.
    • A testament to this concern is that ESPN estimated their subscribers at ~92 mln as of October 3, 2015, which was down 3 mln from September 27, 2014 and down 7 mln from September 28, 2013.
    • In addition, revenues from the Cable Networks segment have slowed their Y/Y growth from 12.2% in FY11 to 9.7% in 2015 (Growth fell to 5.8% in 2012, 6.1% in 2013, and 4.5% in 2014) and on October 20th it was reported by Bloomberg that ESPN planned to cut 250 jobs.
    • Management's comments on this segment in the earnings release, as well as on the following conference call, will be important to note.
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
    • On January 6, Disney announced that Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the largest U.S. box office of all time, surpassing Avatar's $760.5 mln record in just 20 days. It was reported this week that the movie has now crossed the $2 billion mark at the box office worldwide. 
    • This film opened on December 18th, so it only had 13 days in the quarter. 
    • Look for management to discuss the top and bottom line impacts that this film had in Q1'16 and also what tailwinds they believe the movie will provide going through the year. 
    • As a side note, Disney announced that Star Wars: Episode VIII will open in December of 2017. That movie is sure to be highly anticipated as well. 

Q4'15 Segment Results

  • Media Networks
    • Revenues of $5.8 bln; up 12% Y/Y and flat Q/Q.
    • Operating income of $1.8 bln; up 27% Y/Y and down 25% Q/Q.
    • Operating income increased Y/Y as a result of an increase at ESPN as well as to A&E Television and Disney Channels, to a lesser extent. ESPN reflected a benefit of a 53rd week, higher affiliate revenues and higher advertising revenues.
  • Parks and Resorts
    • Revenues of $4.4 bln; up 10% Y/Y and up 7% Q/Q.
    • Operating income of $738 mln; up 7% Y/Y and down 20% Q/Q.
    • The company stated during their call that the investments they have made in their domestic parks continued to drive higher guest visitation. Attendance at their domestic parks was up 7% in the quarter, excluding the benefit of the 53rd week.
    • The company is looking forward to the opening of its Shanghai Disney Resort this on June 16th. The company expects pre-opening expenses in 2016 to be "a little" under $300 mln.
  • Studio Entertainment
    • Revenues of $1.8 bln; ~flat Y/Y and down 10% Q/Q.
    • Operating income of $530 mln; up 109% Y/Y and up 12% Q/Q.
    • In reference to the 2016 movie slate: "I've been at Disney a long time, and I can't remember a movie slate that comes close to this one. It truly reflects the strength of the unprecedented pipeline of extraordinary content being generated under our unparalleled portfolio of brands."
  • Consumer Products
    • Revenues of $1.2 bln; up 11% Y/Y and up 26% Q/Q.
    • Operating income of $416 mln; up 10% Y/Y and up $20% Q/Q.
    • The company stated that growth in licensing in Q4 was driven by sales of Star Wars Classic, Avengers and Frozen merchandizing. Merchandise related to Star Wars: Episode VII, which was sold in Q4, will be included in Q1 earnings.
  • Interactive
    • Revenues of $347 mln, down 4% Y/Y and up 67% Q/Q.
    • Operating income of 31 mln; up 72% Y/Y (breakeven in Q3).

Options Activity

  • Based on DIS options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 37%, which is 37% higher than the historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the DIS Weekly Feb12 $91 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~6% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).

BIAS: HARD SELL

Related Companies: VIATWX, NFLX, RGC

TRADE: DIS FEB 87 P (Primary trade)

ALTERNATIVES: DIS FEB 83/82/80P (Market pricing a 6% move so these will 3x if it goes in your favor)

  • You can also play the TWX 59 P


WEDNESDAY


Wednesday looks like it's shaping up to be more of a mixed bag than the previous two days. That said, it provides great opportunity.


GWPH


SELL.


DTE



HUM



TWTR



EXPE



TSLA


Tesla Motors: TSLA -1.8% an under-performer vs. SPY & QQQ early here with the volatile car manufacturer confirmed to release quarterlies after today's close 

I am a huge fan of the company and I cannot tell you a reason to go long. Most people who would would be a fanboy or a fukboi. I think its best to avoid this company if you dont wanna use deep pockets. 

This is the first time I can remember that the analysts were negative on the issue going into ER. Thats not usual. 

 

BIAS: SELL/AVOID

TRADE: FEB 130 P, FEB WEEKLY 112 P (This is too expensive to hedge in my opinion so risk what you are willing to see go to 0).


WFM


Financial Highlights

  • The Street expects Q1 adj. EPS of $0.40 (vs. $0.46 last year) on revs up 2% to $4.8 bln and comps down 2%. WFM has missed sales estimates three quarters in a row as competition in the natural/organic food space remains intense.

  • The Street expects Q2 adj. EPS of $0.41 (vs. $0.46 last year) on revs up 6% to $3.8 bln and comps down 2%. 
  • Co guided for FY 16 adj. EPS of at least $1.50 with revs +3-5% to ~$15.85-16.16 bln and operating margin down 75 bps to ~5.35% with an EBITDA margin 8.5%.
    • The Street is looking for FY16 EPS of $1.53 on revs of $16.0 bln.
  • The company did not give specific same store sales guidance for FY16.
  • Whole Foods is hopeful that comps will improve over the course of the year given its toughest comparison is in Q1, and many sales-building initiatives are still gaining traction or are planned to roll out later in the year.
    • Co did note that the higher-end of its sales outlook implies flat comps for the year, including comps down -2% in Q1, relatively flat in Q2 and Q3, +3% by Q4.
    • Lower end of outlook reflects possibility that comps could get marginally worse before they get better

Other FY16 guidance

  • Board approved an additional $1 bln to stock repurchase authorization
    • Intends to spend the majority of the authorization in 1H of 2016
  • ~30 new stores in 2016 (including 2 or 3 relocations and 3 365 stores)
  • Plans to open up to 10 365 concept stores in FY 2017

Additional Notables:

  • Recent Growth Trends Summary:
    • Q4: EPS -14% Revs +6% Comps -0.2%
    • Q3: EPS +4.9% Revs +9% Comps +1.3%
    • Q2: EPS +13.2% Revs +9.8% Comps +3.6%
    • Q1: EPS +9.5% Revs +10.2% Comps +4.5%
    • Note: Comps are constant currency
  • An ongoing discrepancy between management's strategic vision for the company and investor pessimism has been around the firm's 365 by Whole Foods Market store concept. Investors and analysts have conveyed a sense of worry about cannibalistic affects emanating from the concept's introduction. Given the ongoing nature of the rollout the conference call may once again partially focus on new developments in that arena
  • Renewed M&A chatter caused an ~10% pop during 12/10 and 12/11, but the stock has sold off since.
  • 19.1% short interest

Analyst Commentary:

  • On February 9, RBC stayed at Outperform, $37 tgt. RBC states, "While we are long-term bullish on Whole Foods' opportunity to re-establish its competitive advantages, our call is not predicated on a near-term beat. Like last quarter, investor sentiment is very low, which could limit downside in the event of a miss. Additionally, we believe WFM benefits from a return to Produce inflation, while having less relative exposure to beef deflation (higher end cuts/organic cuts)."
  • On February 8, Wedbush reiterated NEUTRAL w/ a $29 PT. Wedbush states, "WFM faces a variety of negative headwinds at present stemming primarily from increased competition in natural/organic foods. While we believeWFM's long-term outlook may prove favorable to its specialty peers based on its strategy adjustments and higher brand equity, given structural concerns and major strategic changes and investments occurring we believe a wait-and-see approach is prudent to gauge if Whole Foods can recapture consumer trust and reaccelerate earnings growth."
  • On February 1, Telsey maintained at Market Perform w/ a $30 PT. "REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON 1QF16 EPS; UPDATE ON COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND KEY INITIATIVES AT WFM"

Thanks PLAYAR, I'm cautious too. 

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: BTO FEB 27.5/27 P; WEEKLY 29.5 (HEDGE: 31 C -- I WONT HEDGE THOUGH)


TWTR


What can we say about this piece of crap? No support on the chart, part time CEO, and part time investors. 

TWTR reported Q3 results at 4:10pm. Current consensus stands at EPS of $0.12 on Revenue of $710M.

Shares of TWTR have been under steady selling pressure since hitting $55 last April. The slide has led the stock to all time lows as it trades in the $14 area ahead of tonight's report. A lack of growth in its user base has been a key in driving the stock lower.People are questioning TWTR's viability compared to it's primary social media peer Facebook (FB) which continues to grow at a faster rate despite a user base that is 5x the size. TWTR has also had issues with it's top management as there were four notable departures. A concern for investors as the co is in the midst of a turnaround plan.

The combined issues have led to sentiment dropping to an all time low. Investors would like to see signs that the turnaround is starting to show some rewards despite the departures. And perhaps most importantly investors would like to see a stabilization of the user base.

Key Metrics

  • Monthly Active Users- Q3 Total average MAUs were 320 mln, up 11% y/y, and compared to 316 million in the previous quarter (Current expectations are 324 mln). 

  • Excluding SMS Fast Followers, MAUs were 307 million for the third quarter, up 8% y/y, and compared to 304 million in the previous quarter. (4Q15 was 292 mln)

  • Q3 Mobile MAUs represented approximately 80% of total MAUs.
  • Q3 Advertising revenue totaled $513 million, an increase of 60% y/y.
  • Q3 Mobile advertising revenue was 86% of total advertising revenue.
  • Q3 Data licensing and other revenue totaled $56 million, an increase of 37% y/y.

Guidance

  • TWTR issued downside guidance for Q4, projecting revenue in the range of $695-710 mln vs. then-$741.70 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of $155-175 mln.
  • GAAP expenses are projected to include the vast majority of the $5-15 mln of total restructuring charges expected from corporate restructuring activities. These charges are projected to be $10-20 mln. The majority of corporate restructuring charges will be in Q4 (this is excluded from Q4 EBITDA guidance).
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be no more than $110 million.
  • TWTR is expected to guide for Q1 and FY16
    • Q1 Capital IQ consensus- EPS $0.08, Revenue $629 mln.
    • FY16 Capital IQ consensus $0.54, Revenue $3.093 bln.

Q3 Recap

TWTR reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.10 per share, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.05. Revenues rose 57.6% year/year to $569 mln vs the $562.17 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

  • Revenue Breakdown
    • Advertising revenue totaled $513 million, an increase of 60% y/y (Q2 +63%)
    • Mobile advertising revenue was 86% of total advertising revenue.
    • Data licensing and other revenue totaled $56 million, an increase of 37% y/y (Q2 +44% y/y)
    • U.S. revenue totaled $370 million, an increase of 54% y/y (Q2 +53% y/y)
    • International revenue totaled $199 million, an increase of 65% y/y (Q2 +78% y/y).

Executive Departures

  • The four executives were Alex Roetter and Kevin Weil, who have run all of the product and engineering together the last eighteen months, according to Dorsey, Katie Stanton, who led the media team, and Skip Schipper, who was vice president of human resources

New Board Members?

  • According to sources TWTR may name two new Board members with its release. One candidate getting strong scrutiny has been a top exec at a major media company, while the other is considered a powerful creative player within Hollywood.

Options pricing is very expensive for this name as most peasants like to trade it. To me, it "feels" like a suckers bet. 

BIAS: NEUTRAL/SELL

TRADE: IF you have to play this, take the MAR 11/10 Puts


EXPE


RBC stays at Outperform, $180 tgt on EXPE ahead of the results as based on intra-quarter data points, channel checks, and their model sensitivity analysis, firm views Street Q4 ests as reasonable, though they note this is a difficult quarter to model given the recent M&A activity. They expect management to issue FY16 EBITDA guidance for low double-digit growth in the Core, though weakening Int'l macro may challenge the outlook.

For Q4:15, they are expecting rev, EBITDA, and Non-GAAP EPS of $1.65B, $322MM, and $1.23, respectively.

In Q3, co experienced strong Bookings growth of 28% Y/Y (ex-FX and ex-Orbitz), they expect a relatively consistent result in Q4.

Aside from the general info that is available out there on EXPE I ran a comps set for several widely owned internet companies and EXPE scored the worst of the bunch. 

EXPE scored worse than GRPN when comparing financials.

Sure, EXPE can get a nice pop from here but to me I think you use this opp to sell. 

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: BTO MAR 80 P, BTO FEB 88 P

PEERS: PCLN TRIP


CSOD


I know this company pretty well (almost worked for them) and believe me this is what we look for when we outline high valuation and low cash flow. I'm not going to go into too much detail, my bias is a hard fuckin sell.

BIAS: HARD FUCKIN SELL

TRADE: MAR 22.5 P


PXD


I dont know where this keeps finding an endless bid but it has as of late. That said the issue is trading righat support on multiple time frames. I will not trade the name but I like the idea. 

TRADE: BTO FEB 104 P


LC


This is a stock that has been good in theory and just dog shit in practice. The chart lends no help what so ever either. With added defaults and with loans missing payments this is an issue that has no theoretical support at any level and the charts all point down. 

BIAS: HARD SELL

TRADE: FEB 5/6 P (TARGET 3)


TRIP


EARNINGS REV Y/Y HAS BEEN DECELERATING. Analysts are bailing. Stock broke support.

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: BTO MAR 50/45 P FEB 47 P


PRU



GRPN

 

If $SALE taught us anything this week, speculative garbage is getting taken out. So what was once a good idea now looks like it's just a spam signup page. There's no reason to play this name or to go long but I'd say short for fun in case this stock actually completes its measured move to 0.7.

BIAS: SELL🔑

TRADE: FEB 2 P & 1.5 P


FEYE

 

FEYE is expected to report earnings fourth quarter earnings tonight after the close.

Consensus calls for Q4 EPS of ($0.37) vs ($0.38) last year on revenue of $185.6 mln (+29% YoY)

The current EPS consensus is within the company's guidance range of ($0.38) -- ($0.36). On January 20th, the company pre-announced Q4 revenue guidance of $184-185 mln which was below $186.9 mln Capital IQ consensus at that time.  Some peers in the space include: CYBRSYMCPANWPFPTBLOXFTNT.

The first area of interest will be billings. Taking a look at last quarter, the company reported billings of $210.6 mln which was an increase of 28% versus Q3 of last year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company said it expects Q4 billings of $256-257 mln. Further, the co also expects positive operating cash flow in the range of $7-9 mln in Q4, resulting in positive operating cash flow of between $35-37 mln for 2015. Imperial Capital noted FEYE announced preliminary 4Q15 results consistent with their estimates and consensus. In addition, management provided initial comments on the company's 2016 outlook and it expects to achieve 20% organic billings growth and positive free cash flow. They believe these metrics significantly exceed investor expectations, as the stock has been under considerable pressure in recent weeks.

The next area of interest will be margins. Taking a look at last quarter, Non-GAAP gross margins increased from 71% in Q3 2014 to 73% in Q3 2015, at the high end of FEYE's guidance range. The increase was primarily due to improved margins on both subscriptions and services. The drop in product gross margin sequentially and YoY was a result of a nonrecurring product expense in Q32015 that represented a three percentage point negative impact to the product gross margin. Taking a look ahead to the fourth quarter, the company is expecting gross margins to range from 72-74%. Wedbush said, although the company missed consensus rev slightly, weakness was widely anticipated due to cautious checks from firm and other analysts. As suggested by their reseller checks indicating competitive troubles, company's product sales are under pressure: 4Q product billings were flat to slightly down Y/Y vs. +33% in 3Q. Now that the company has the 4Q behind it, the firm sees a decent chance for FEYE shares to bounce in the coming weeks, as new product announcements (for network product editions and endpoint) cheer investors. 

Techs:

  • FEYE shares have underperformed the Nasdaq so far this year with FEYE falling by 39% vs 14% decline in the index. FEYE tends to have 5-7% reactions to earnings. On a positive report, look for resistance near the $13.75-14.00 area, while support sits near the $11.50-11.75 vicinity.

This is worth a short.

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: WEEKLY 10.5/10 P & FEB 10 P (FULL RISK)


P


Dougherty stays at Neutral on P ahead of the quarterly results as they note co is on a mission, aggressively investing in expanding the functionality of its legacy business, a new on-demand service, and int'l expansion, all with the goal of creating the go-to platform for music discovery. These investments don't come cheap, especially in a business where co has yet to realize any meaningful margin leverage. Firm expects the growth in expenses is likely to outstrip rev growth for the foreseeable future, meaning that margins will remain sub-par even as the business surpasses $1.5B in rev. While the stock has been beaten down to where it trades at less than 2x rev, they are going to remain Neutral rated until they have more visibility into the path to enhanced profitability. Firm is modeling Q4 at $329.7M/$25.5M/$0.06, which is based on 5.3B listener hours (+2.5% Y/Y) and 83.1M active listeners.

BIAS: Sell

TRADE: BTO P MONTHLY 8 P (PENDING DEALBOOK)

Pandora Media trading halted for volatility after Dealbook reports co is in talks to be acquired, earnings expected for tonight after the bell 


LOGM


Expensive forward P/E vs sales/revs along with analyst upgrades with 80 price targets.

BIAS: SELL

TRADE: FEB 40 P & 50 C


Z


BIAS: LONG

TRADE: MAR 20 C FEB 19.5 C