Autodrive (NVDA Earnings 5/9/17)

Autodrive (NVDA Earnings 5/9/17)

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report Q1 earnings tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. NVDA reported Q4 results at 4:20pm.

Riding Shotgun (TSLA Earnings 5/3/17)

Riding Shotgun (TSLA Earnings 5/3/17)

Tesla (TSLA) will report first quarter results in a shareholder letter on its website after the bell and host a call at 17:30. 

  • Tesla preannounced Q1 deliveries up 69% to 25K on April 2. The EV mix was 13450 Model S and 11550 Model X. 
  • Tesla had guided for 47-50K Model S and X deliveries in the first half of the year, now implying 22-25K deliveries for Q2, which will be updated this afternoon. 
  • Investors were used to Tesla missing delivery targets because of production constraints, as they had four of the last five quarters, so the strong Q1 deliveries caused the stock to break out to fresh all-time highs. 
  • Tesla is expected to report Q1 non-GAAP EPS of ($0.78) vs. ($0.57) last year with revenue up 63% to $2.61 bln. 
  • Tesla will unveil the final version of the Model 3 in July. 
  • Tesla raised $1.2 bln in stock and convertible notes in March. That was the third capital raise for Tesla since August of 2015... and it probably won't be the last. Tesla is still far from generating cash or profits on its own, but investors are more focused on the big picture opportunity. 

We've been all over TSLA and I continue to remain bullish so (with house money) so long last this interesting trader (pictured below) does too. TSLA broke out of a 3 year range and our target remains very north of here; especially with the 26% short interest.

Tesla's market cap is ~$51 bln; 26% of the float is sold short.

Liked (FB Earnings 5/3/17)

Liked (FB Earnings 5/3/17)

Facebook (FB) is set to report Q1 results tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. FB usually reports immediately after the closing bell. 

Lattice Cut (AAPL Earnings Preview 5/2/17)

Lattice Cut (AAPL Earnings Preview 5/2/17)

AAPL is expected to report second quarter earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 17:00 (the company typically guides in the press release). 

Alphabet Soup (GOOG Earnings 4/27/17)

Alphabet Soup (GOOG Earnings 4/27/17)

Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) is set to report Q1 results today after the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30pm ET. GOOG usually reports within the first five minutes after the closing bell. 

Crack Straw (SBUX Earnings 4/27/17)

Crack Straw (SBUX Earnings 4/27/17)

SBUX is expected to report Q2 earnings tonight after the close. This will be the last call for CEO Howard Shultz (The company typically provides guidance in the press release).

TI 83 (TXN Earnings 4/25/17)

TI 83 (TXN Earnings 4/25/17)

Texas Instruments (TXN) is scheduled to report Q1 earnings after the market closes today. The company reported Q4 earnings at 4:30 p.m. ET last period (a conference call will follow at 5:30 p.m. ET)

Taco Tuesday (CMG 4/25/17 Earnings)

Taco Tuesday (CMG 4/25/17 Earnings)

Chipotle (CMG) is set to report Q1 earnings after the close today (last quarter the co reported at 16:05). The co will host a conference call to discuss later at 16:30. 

Super Size It

Super Size It

McDonalds (MCD) is scheduled to report Q1 earnings before the open tomorrow and a conference call is scheduled for 11:00 am ET.

Express'd (AXP Earnings)

Express'd (AXP Earnings)

American Express (AXP) is set to report Q1 earnings after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. AXP is expected to report at approx 4:05pm. 

No Sherlock (IBM 4/17 Earnings)

No Sherlock (IBM 4/17 Earnings)

IBM is scheduled to report Q1 earnings tonight after the bell with a conference call scheduled to begin at 5:00 p.m. ET

Forever Chill (NFLX 4/17/17 Earnings)

Forever Chill (NFLX 4/17/17 Earnings)

Netflix (NFLX) is set to report Q1 earnings tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 6pm ET. NFLX generally reports results shortly after the bell. 

Bare With Me (LULU)

Bare With Me (LULU)

Lululemon athletica (LULU) is set to report Q4 results tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30pm ET. LULU reported Q3 results at 4:05pm. Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $1.01 on Revenue of $783.3 mln

Micro Machine (MU)

Micro Machine (MU)

MU is expected to report earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 4:30PM. 

Q2 Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $0.86 (versus ($0.05) last year) on revenue of $4.651 bln (+58.5% YoY). 

  • The current consensus is within the company's guidance range of $4.6-4.7 billion. 
  • Micron's EPS guidance is at $0.86 +/- a few cents. The company raised its EPS guidance at a Morgan Stanley conference on March 2nd, and raised the midpoint of its revenue guidance.
  • 2015 and early 2016 proved to be a tumultuous year as a slowdown in demand, driven largely by the decline of the PC industry (Now less than 20% of MUs business), impacted the company as it was restructuring. 
  • Comments from MU surrounding demand in the company's newly targeted areas of server, mobile, automotive, and Industrial machine-to-machine areas bode well as does the pricing improvements seen industry wide.

DRAM and Margins

  • MU says it currently expects 2017 DRAM bit supply growth in the 15% to 20% range. Its long-term bit demand growth forecast of ~20% to 25%. 
  • The company's overall consolidated GAAP gross margin of 25 percent for the first quarter of fiscal 2017 was 7 percentage points higher compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016 primarily due to manufacturing cost reductions and increases in DRAM average selling prices. 
  • Margin Guidance: Looking ahead to the second quarter, the company sees Q2 gross Margin in the range of 37-38%. CO's margins guidance was raised at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 2. 

Options Activity

Based on MU options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 46%, which is 64% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days).The options market is currently pricing in a move of ~7% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).

Options activity has been aggressively bullish in the last few weeks with multiple strikes and calls bought. 

MU Options Activity

Technicals:

MU shares have outperformed the S&P so far this year with MU raising by 19% vs 5% gain in the index.  Resistance sits near the $26.50-26.75 area, while support hangs near $25.75-26.00.

TRADE: Buy APR 29C AND/OR WDC APR 80C

Game Over (GME)

Game Over (GME)

GameStop (GME) is set to report Q4 results after the bell (5:00pm ET). Cap IQ Consensus estimates Q4 EPS of $2.29 (vs. $2.40 in 4Q16), revs of $3.06 bln (-12.6% y/y), with comps declining 16.9%.  

Air Mail (FDX)

Air Mail (FDX)

FedEx is set to report Q3 results after the close today with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. FDX is expected to report at 4:15pm. Current Capital IQ expectations stand at EPS of $2.62 on Revenues of $14.99 bln.