Shake Shack's (SHAK) current capital earnings stand at EPS of $0.07 with a revenue of $50.09 mlm.

This stock has had its roller coaster ride, to say the least. Initially, the stock opened at $47/share and doubled to about $90/share by May 22, but had a crash by mid-July, returning back to $40/share. Subsequently, it hit an all-time-low this past February, trading for as low as $31.88/share and since then has fallen nearly 11% from February’s last IPO price.

Will it bounce back and make a turnaround?

Currently, its March 11 share stands at $41.50. Also, note that its short interest is about 15% of its total float, but over the past few weeks has been decreasing recognizably. Its current volatility stands at 68%, which is 5% higher than its volatility over the past month, and the stock is expected to move its price 11% in either direction.

 

Key Metrics (Q3)

  • Same-store sales: increased 17.1% y/y

  • Shack sales (less revenue from licensing) in general increased 70% to $51.3 mln y/y

  • Operating profit: increased 105.7% to $15.6 mln, this represents 30.4% of sales
  • Domestic co-operated avg weekly sales: $104,000 in Q3 compared to $102,000 in Q2
  • Food & Paper costs: 29.1% in Q3 compared to 29.4% in Q2
  • Labor & Related costs: 23.7% in Q3 compared to 24% in Q2

Updated FY15 Guidance (from Q3 earnings release)

  • Raised total rev to $189-$190 mln (vs. $171-$174 mln previously)
  • Increased same-store sales growth to between 11%-12% (vs. mid- to high-single digits previously)
  • 12 total new domestic company-operated Shacks opened in 2015
  • 6 (vs 5) international licensed Shacks to be opened under co's current license agreements in the UK, Middle-East, & Japan

Updated FY16 Guidance (from Q3 earnings release)

  • Reaffirms total rev between $237-$242 mln vs $228.01 mln consensus

  • Same-store sales growth between 2.5%-3.0%

  • At least 14 new domestic company-operated Shacks to be opened; new stores expected to have avg annual sales volumes of at least $3.3 mln and Shack-level operating profit margins of at least 22%
  • Eight international licensed Shacks to be opened under co's current license agreements in the UK, Middle-East, & Japan

Key executives entered into share selling plans: CEO Randy Garutti, Chairman Daniel Meyer, & Director Jeff Flug. Garutti may sell up to 80,000 shares of common stock through Aug 31, 2016, which represent ~5% of his equity holdings. Meyer may sell up to 300,000 shares of common stock through Aug 31, 2016, representing ~5% of his equity holdings. Flug may sell up to 150,000 shares of common stock through Jan 2, 2017, which represent ~9% of his equity holdings in the co.

-Competitors Include: MCD, WEN, QSR, WING, DPZ, CMG, YUM

Shares were down 2% before the earnings release scheduled for today.


RESULTS


Shake Shack beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY16 rev in-line  

  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 46.8% year/year to $51.1 mln vs the $50.09 mln Consensus. 
  • Same-Shack sales (LOL) increased 11.0% for Q4 vs. ests near +7%, on a calendar basis, versus 7.2% growth in the fourth quarter last year.

  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY16, sees FY16 revs of $237-242 mln vs. $240.54 mln Capital IQ Consensus; same shack sales +2.5-3.0% vs. estimates just above +3%; 13 new domestic Shacks and seven new licensed Shacks.

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