Key Metrics/Guidance

  • Current Consensus calls for non-GAAP EPS of $2.08 on revenues of ~$18.24 bln.
  • Guidance for Q1 EPS of 15% of FY16 earnings or  ~$2.02/share vs ($2.91 Consensus at the time)
  • The company will provide guidance for Q2 on its conference call. Consensus is for non-GAAP EPS of $3.43 on revenues of ~$19.71 bln.

FY16 Consensus and Guidance

  • Guidance for FY16 EPS of at least ~$13.50 ($15.06 Capital IQ Consensus at the time); Co saw significant currency impacts for FY16.

  • Consensus calls for non-GAPP EPS of $13.50 on revenues of ~$77.93 bln.

  • Reported a services backlog of $121 bln at the end of Q4'15.


  • IBM is sitting at 15 consecutive quarters with  DECLINING REVENUE GROWTH

  • A couple of years ago, IBM laid out their ‘strategic imperatives' around big data, analytics, cloud, and mobile and security. Investors will look to see how investments have helped to achieve the goals set by big blue.

  • During last quarter's conference call, management pointed out the progress that they were making with their imperatives. In the quarter, cloud, analytics, mobile, social, and security grew 26% to $29 billion in revenues. These imperatives accounted for 35% of IBM's revenues, up from 22% two years earlier and 10% YoY.
  • Look for the company to give additional updates on the progress they have made in these areas through Q1.

Strategic M&A toward ‘strategic imperatives'

  • March 31: Announced plans to acquire Bluewolf Group who offers consulting and implementation services. It was reported that the deal was worth ~$200 mln.

  • March 18: Announced acquisition of Optevia, a Software as a Service systems integrator specializing in Microsoft Dynamics CRM solutions for public sector organizations.

  • March 8: Acquired, a full-service digital agency headquartered in Germany.
  • February 29: Announced plans to acquire Resilient Systems, who automates and orchestrates the processes needed when dealing with cyber incidents -- from breaches to lost devices.
  • February 18: IBM Watson Health announced plans to acquire Truven Health Analytics for $2.6 bln. Truven Health Analytics is a provider of cloud-based healthcare data, analytics, & insights.
  • February 2: Announced plans to acquire Aperto, a digital agency.
  • January 28: Announced plans to acquire Resource/Ammirati, a US based digital marketing and creative agency.
  • January 21: Co confirms acquisition of Ustream, a live video platform.

Options & Techs

  • Based on IBM options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 27%, which is 79% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the IBM weekly Apr22 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration.