POT will be releasing its Q1 earnings results tomorrow pre-market with a call tomorrow at 1:00pm ET. Consensus for POT calls for EPS of $0.15 and revs of $1.1 bln. If realized, that would be an EPS decrease of 66% and a revenue decrease of 29% YoY.

  • Co provided full-year 2016 guidance of $0.90-$1.20 per share.
  • Co also forecasted Q1earnings will fall in the range of $0.10-0.20/share.

Co reported, on Jan 28, Q4 earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.07 worse than the Consensus of $0.31; revenues fell 28.8% year/year to $1.35 bln vs the $1.37 bln Consensus

A big issue all fertilizer companies have is the recent weakness in farmer cash receipts. This hurts product companies like POT. And, potash prices remain weak driven by both demand and supply issues. Nitrogen prices are struggling as well.

Co expects global potash shipments in the range of 59-62 million tonnes, in line with 2015's total of ~60 million tonnes, but above current demand expectations.

Overall, Potash (POT) doesn't just sell potash. The co sells potash, nitrogen and phosphate. Following is the breakdown of how much each contributes to the co's gross margin. 

POT's gross margin exposure by segment: Potash = 56%, Nitrogen = 33%, Phosphate = 11%.

POT's sales volume by region:

  • Potash- North America = 34%, Offshore = 66%

  • Phosphate - North America = 62%, Offshore = 38%

  • Nitrogen- North America = 87%, Offshore = 13%

Other fertilizer stocks include AGU, BG, CF, UAN, IPI, TNH, MOS, RTK, RNF. POT's closest peers.

POT has 2.27k May 17.5P trading today.