Match Group (MTCH) will report Q2 results after the bell and host a call at 8:30am tomorrow. 

  • Analysts are looking for Q2 adj. EPS of $0.16 with adj. EBITDA +37% to $88.8 mln and sales +16.5% Y/Y to $296.8 mln.

  • Match guided for Q2 dating rev +4-5% Q/Q to ~$270.8-273.4 mln with a dating EBITDA margin in the low to mid-30% range vs. 26% in Q1.

  • MTCH flirted with all-time highs last week and is up almost 50% since reporting strong Q1 results after its first public quarter disappointed investors in early February.
  • Match dominates the online dating market in the US (with Match, OK Cupid and Plentyoffish) but Tinder is the real gem.
  • The total dating business (91% rev mix) generates sales through premium (paid) members (direct revenue) and advertising (indirect rev).
  • Total direct Q1 rev was up 23% as total paid member rose 36% to 5.08 mln.
  • Last quarter, Tinder added 219K paid members to hit 1.02 mln (+27% Q/Q) and said it was on pace to double paid member count (PMC) this year (to 1.6 mln).
  • Tinder continues to add features to its matching app to drive engagement and monetization.
  • Indirect (advertising) rev accounted for just $11.4 mln (4%) of dating revenue.
    • In March, Match hired an advertising veteran to run the nascent indirect revenue (advertising) business.
  • Match will be careful to roll out an advertising product that does not disrupt engagement at Tinder.
  • Roughly 27% of the float is sold short and IAC (IAC) still owns 84.7% of the company after floating it (IPO) in November of last year.

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