Apple is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings tonight after the close. There will be a conference call at 17:00 (the company typically guides in the press release).
Q4 Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $1.87 (versus $1.67 last year) on revenue of $50.76 bln (+8.3% YoY). The current consensus is within the company's guidance of $49-52 bln.
The company is expected to guide for the first quarter where consensus stands at $85.73 bln.
Key Points From Last Quarter
- Taking a look at last quarter, the company reported Q3 iPhone sales of 41.0 mln versus 47.5 mln last year.
- The company also reported Q3 iPad sales of 11.4 mln versus 10.9 mln last year.
- Apple reported Q3 Mac sales of 4.3 mln versus 4.4 mln last year.
- The company reported Q3 gross margin of 38.5% versus 38% in the same quarter as last year.
iPhone 8, X, and Other Notes:
- Phone 8 started selling at the tail end of the fiscal fourth quarter. iPhone X pre-orders began on October 27. All of those sales will be in the first quarter. The Q1 guidance that the company gives could give an indication on how early iPhone X sales are going.
Based on AAPL options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 27%, which is 43% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the Weekly Nov03 AAPL $165 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).
AAPL shares have outperformed the Nasdaq YTD with AAPL rising by 44% vs 25% gain in the index. AAPL tends to have 3-5% reactions to earnings.
On a positive report, look for resistance sits at the $170.00 mark.