American Express (AXP) is set to report Q1 earnings after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. AXP is expected to report at approx 4:05pm. 

Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $1.27 on Revenues of $7.76 bln. 

AXP was able to surprise and beat on the Q4 top line. But the increased revenue came at a price as the marketing costs increased, thus impacting the Return on Equity as well as margins. There is hope which has been reflected in the stock price which is up approx 20% since October. De-regulation relief does not appear to be on the table yet which will mean the company will need to rely on the quality of today's earnings and the direction of the company. Is it a one hit wonder from last quarter? Or will it continue to impress? 

Guidance

  • AXP reaffirmed its FY17 outlook on March 17. EPS is expected to be approx $5.60-5.80. 
  • Revenue Growth is expected to be approx 6%.

Q4 Recap

  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.91 per share, $0.08 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.99; revenues fell 4.4% year/year to $8.02 bln vs the $7.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • The company's return on average equity (ROE) was 26.0 percent, up from 24.0 percent a year ago.

TECHS:

Shares of AXP are trading at $75 which is where it was trading when it reported Q4 results. The stock rallied to $82 following the Q4 report but, as with many of its peers, the stock has started to roll over ahead of the Q1 results.

 AXP Bear flag under 100D Into ER

AXP Bear flag under 100D Into ER

Looking at the setup above, AXP is bear flagging into the print with the 100D as resistance and support sitting at 70.9ish at the 200D. 


I will play for the weakness to continue with the APR21 73P into the print.