Snap (SNAP) is set to report Q1 results after the bell (4:30pm ET conference call).
Cap IQ Consensus estimates Q1 EPS of -$0.20, and revs of $158.3 mln (up ~300% y/y). It seems unlikely that Snap will issue formal quarterly or annual revenue guidance.
Highlights from the S-1 (courtesy of briefing)
- In FY16 Snap reported revenues of $404 mln vs. $58.6 mln in FY15.
- Reported FY16 net loss of $514.64 mln vs. $372.89 mln in FY15.
- Generates substantially all of their revenue from advertising. The failure to attract new advertisers, the loss of advertisers, or a reduction in how much they spend could seriously harm their business.
- Had 158 mln daily active users on average in the quarter ended December 31, 2016, +47.1% y/y. However user growth has slowed to just 10% over the 2H of FY16, after growing 33.6% in 1H FY16.
- Analyst estimates: 165 mln average daily active users for Q1.
- Daily Active Users grew by 7% from 143 million Daily Active Users for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 to 153 million Daily Active Users for the quarter ended September 30, 2016, the growth in Daily Active Users was relatively flat in the latter part of the quarter ended September 30, 2016.
- The majority of users are 18-34 years old.
- Users 25 and older visited Snapchat ~12 times and spent ~20 minutes on Snapchat every day on average in the quarter ended December 31, 2016.
- Users younger than 25 visited Snapchat over 20 times and spent over 30 minutes on Snapchat every day on average during the same period.
- Global average revenue per user, or ARPU, in the three months ended December 31, 2016 was $1.05, compared to $0.31 for the same period in 2015.
- According to Nielsen, people between the ages of 18 and 24 spent 35% less time watching traditional (live and time-shifted) television in an average month during the second quarter of 2016 compared to the second quarter of 2010.
- FB has four apps with more users than its social media peers: Facebook has 1.86 bln MAU; Messenger 1.2 bln; WhatsApp 1.2 bln; Instagram 600 mln.
- Twitter (TWTR) MAU 319 mln.
Based on SNAP options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 72%, which is 78% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). The options market is currently pricing in a move of ~14% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).
"Wiseguys" loaded the May 21.5 puts monthlies for .90. They also took the 21.5 put weeklies for .90. IV pushing higher, so puts more expensive. I don think this is a "hedge" it appears too big a position to be one.
Technically, SNAP has managed to find itself carving out a 2-month range between the $19 and $23 zone, just under its IPO debut price of $24. It currently sits in a 4-week uptrend.. Buyers want the $24 level to try back towards its March peak of $29. Sellers will whip the stock to $20/19 support zone.
Snap misses by $0.26 (GAAP), misses on revs
Snap: reports Q1 166 mln average daily active users vs. 167 mln estimate and 158 mln in Q4
Snap prelim Q1 $149 mln vs $158.32 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
- Reports Q1 (Mar) GAAP loss of $2.31 per share, $0.26 worse than the GAAP Capital IQ Consensus of ($2.05); revenues rose 285.6% year/year to $149.6 mln vs the $158.32 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
- Daily active users (DAU) -- DAUs grew from 122 million in Q1 2016 to 166 million in Q1 2017 (roughly in-line with estimates), an increase of 36% year-over-year. DAUs increased 5% quarter-over-quarter, from 158 million in Q4 2016.
- Average revenue per user (ARPU) -- ARPU was $0.90 in Q1 2017, an increase of 181% over Q1 2016 when ARPU was $0.32. ARPU decreased 14% over Q4 2016 when ARPU was $1.05.
- Hosting costs per DAU -- Hosting costs per DAU were $0.60 in Q1 2017, as compared to $0.52 in Q1 2016 and $0.72 in Q4 2016.