Alibaba (BABA) is set to report Q1 results tomorrow before the bell with a conference call slated for 7:30am ET.

Cap IQ Consensus estimates Q1 EPS of $0.93 (vs. $0.74 in Q1FY17), w/revs of $7.02 bln (+49% Y/Y).

Investor Day Highlights: 

At their June 8th Investor Day (see below) management said that they expect 45-49% of revenue growth in FY18 which equates to $33.72-$34.65 bln vs. the $34.77 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Options Vol

Based on BABA options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 32%, which is 14% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). 

Analyst Actions

  • Barclays raises their tgt to $141 from $132 (May 19). 
  • Needham raises their tgt to $155 from $140 (June 8). 
  • Target raised to $175 from $140 at The Benchmark Company reflecting earnings upside following co's Investor Day (June 12). 
  • Resumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $190 (June 27). 
  • Target raised to $201 from $158 at Deutsche Bank (July 3). 
  • Initiated at Chinese-based China Merchants Bank with a Buy, $190 tgt. 
  • Stifel raises their BABA tgt to $180 from $165. They are adding Alibaba to the Stifel Select List ahead of earnings (August 15).


BABA is up +81% for the year, so buyers remain in firm control with price trending above its rising 50-day ma's. A poor response to earnings will bring some recent support in play down to 147.