Tesla (TSLA) will report first quarter results in a Shareholder Letter on its website soon after the bell and Elon Musk will host a call at 18:30. 

Analysts expect Q1 adjusted EPS of ($0.94) vs. ($3.35) last year with revenue up 52% to $5.18 bln. 

Tesla was expected to post a $0.54/share non-GAAP profit before it announced weak deliveries earlier this month. Model 3 deliveries came in at 50,900 versus estimates closer to 55,000.

The other headwind during the quarter came from the fact that the US Federal tax credit for electric vehicles was cut in half to $3,750 starting on January 1, which pulled demand forward into the fourth quarter of 2018. 

As a result, deliveries of the Model S and Model X fell 44% yr/yr combined. Cannibalization from the Model 3 may also be impacting sales. 

The demand argument from Bears has substance for the first time.

Tesla has guided for FY19 deliveries +45-65% to 360-400K. EPS estimates for the year at $3.60/share are down ~40% from two months ago.


Tesla has a $45 bln market cap and traded at ~20x EV/EBITDA

The stock has underperformed and currently trades near the low end of the $260-380/share range it has trade in for the last two years.

Around 33 mln shares were recently sold short (~26% of the float). The options market is pricing in a 8% move.


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