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$IBB

Biogenes (BIIB Earnings)

October 24, 2017

Biogen will set the tone for the actively-traded biotech space on Tuesday, October 24, before the open.

Pillz (GILD)

February 7, 2017

Gilead Sciences (GILD) will report Q4 results after the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30pm ET. GILD is expected to report earnings at 4:01pm. Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $2.60 and Revenues of $7.175 bln.

Getting Cellular (CELG)

January 25, 2017

Celgene (CELG) will report Q4 results tomorrow before the market opens with a conference call to follow at 9am ET. CELG is expected to report Q4 results at 7:30am. Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $1.60 on Revenue of $3.02 bln

$GILD Earnings

November 1, 2016

Gilead Sciences is expected to report Q3 earnings today after the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30 pm ET the same day.

Capital IQ Consensus calls for EPS of $2.84 & a revenue decline of 12.5% to $7.44 bln, compared to EPS of $3.22 on revenue of $8.51 bln in the same quarter last year.

FY16 guidance

Co updated guidance for FY16 in their Q2 earnings release.
- Lowered net product sales to between $29.5-30.5 bln from $30-31 bln; reaffirmed adj gross margin between 88-90%.

Techs:

GILD has been in a slump throughout 2016 as it sits down -26% YTD near the $73-area. The path of least resistance remains to the downside as price flirts with 2-1/2 year lows & its down-trending 50-day simple moving avg near $77.

Options Activity

Based on GILD options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 33%, which is 67% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the GILD Weekly Nov04 $74 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).

Peers include: AMGN, RHHBY, NVS, CELG, SHPG, REGN, BMRN, ALXN, BIIB

RESULTS:

Gilead Sciences misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY16 (Dec) revs in-line

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.75 per share, $0.09 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $2.84.
- Antiviral product sales, which include primarily products in Gilead's HIV and liver disease areas, were $6.8 billion for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $7.7 billion for the same period in 2015.
  - HIV and other antiviral product sales were $3.5 billion compared to $2.9 billion for the same period in 2015.
  - HCV product sales, which consist of Harvoni (ledipasvir 90 mg/sofosbuvir 400 mg), Sovaldi (sofosbuvir 400 mg) and Epclusa (sofosbuvir 400 mg/velpatasvir 100 mg), were $3.3 billion compared to $4.8 billion for the same period in 2015.
- Other product sales, which include Letairis (ambrisentan), Ranexa (ranolazine) and AmBisome (amphotericin B liposome for injection), were $564 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $509 million for the same period in 2015.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY16 (Dec), sees FY16 (Dec) revs of 29.5-30.5 vs. $30.38 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

GILD notes they have seen 'strong adoption' of TAF-based regimens where they received reimbursement

In the US, of the nearly 840k people on antiretroviral therapy, 80% receive a Gilead regiment

Anticipated Milestones:

Achieve 48-week endpoint in Phase 3 studies in treatment-naïve and switch patients
Complete Phase 1 study in HIV cure.
Complete enrollment of Phase 2 study in HCM
Complete Phase 3 study in LQT-3 syndrome
Complete Phase 2 study in HCM
Complete Phase 2 study in ebola virus disease

Geting Cellular ($CELG Earnings Preview)

July 27, 2016

Capital IQ Consensus calls for 2Q16 EPS of $1.39 & revenue growth of 18.9%, compared to 2Q15 EPS of $1.23 on revenue of $2.28 bln.

$GILD Earnings Preview

July 25, 2016

Gilead Sciences is scheduled to report 2Q16 earnings on July 25 after the market closes.

Consensus calls for 2Q16 EPS of $3.01 (vs. $3.15 last year) with revenue down 4.9% to $7.8 bln.

The stock trades at just 7.3x FY16 EPS estimates as investors demand growth (similar story to that of AAPL). Sales and earnings are expected to fall ~4% this year. Earnings are expected to grow ~2% next year with sales down 1% as the co aggressively buys back shares.
Investors want the co to acquire its next blockbuster drug. Last month, the CFO said it has the balance sheet to acquire a large oncology asset. Gilead bought back $15 bln shares in FY15 and commenced a $12 bln share buyback in FY16, purchasing $8 bln worth of shares in 1Q16.

FY16 Guidance

The co reiterated FY16 guidance below Consensus on April 28 when they reported 1Q16 earnings. Capital IQ Consensus calls for a 2.5% decrease in FY16 rev to ~$31.8 bln, compared to $32.6 bln in FY15.

Net product sales: $30-31 bln
Adj Product gross margin: 88-90%
Adj R & D expenses: $3.2-3.5 bln
Adj SG & A expenses: $3.3-3.6 bln
Adj Effective tax rate: 18%-20%

1Q16 Recap

The co reported 1Q16 earnings of $3.03/share, $0.10 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $3.13, rev rose 2.6% y/y to $7.79 bln vs the $8.07 bln Consensus.

Technical Analysis

Technically, GILD has been an under-performer since its last earnings report in April had its selling back down to its early Jan/Feb lows around the $82 area. Buyers will want to clear this 87/88 resistance and lift price back into the late-April bearish gap between the 92/96 zone.

The 200-day moving averages are also in play around 91/92. Sellers will simply want to keep the pressure on by dropping the stock back towards this year's lows in the 78/82 range.

Implied Vol

Based on GILD options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 29%, which is 14% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the GILD Weekly Jul29 $86.5 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).

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Heating Up (Weekly Setups $AAPL $AMZN $TSLA $TWTR $YELP)

May 23, 2016

With nearly four weeks of sideways to downside action the pundits would have you think that the market is on the verge of falling apart. The talking heads (for the most part) have you convinced that the sky is falling and that the world economy is abysmal. Hypothetically speaking, even if we are in an outright terrible place in the economy the market doesn't care. Markets unintentionally forecast several months in advance. So with that said, price is truth. Know what you're trading off of and you will be okay. Either direction. I want to be clear and advocate that I am not saying everything is rosey or that they are wrong. I'm simply saying; "Who gives a shit?"

We're not in the business of being "right" we're in the business of making money. Leave the
"being right" to the morons on television who need to fill their ego since they can't fill their bank accounts with their "trading"

SM

After a rest, this name is nearing a breakout and is almost set to resume its trend higher.

ZG/Z

Renewed strength with a well defined post-ER range. Keep this one on your list for a potential breakout.

YELP

This name has founded a rejuvenation. Currently flagging and poised for higher on a breakout.

NFLX

Aggressive call buying and at the lower end of is two year range. Strip out the competition bullshit and just look at the price action. A break of 94 sets this for round two.

TSLA

Here are the levels. Nothing more needs to be said.

XBI LABU IBB

XBI (and in some respect the IBB) has been building a weekly base and is poised for higher highs. The next several weeks will be key in the space as many of these names report vital data that will surely serve as a catalyst.

AAPL

Buffet bottom seems to be the theme here. Look for it to press up to the edge of the gap. Look for the part makers to catch a bid as well.

AMZN

The retail killer and giant has been basing for round two.

TWTR

The giant put seller has seemingly put a bottom in this stock. With volume pops in the name, this stock seems poised to break out. Using 14 as a stop this is worth a long. Look for 14.6 as the breakout level.

QCOM

Multi-month breakout. Look for follow through.

At a Crossroad 4/25 Weekly Setups and Preview

April 25, 2016

With poor earnings from $V $SBUX $GOOGL/$GOOG and $MSFT, the market had every reason to let the bottom fall out and collapse on Friday. Though we started lower, we ended the day slightly in the positive for the S&P 500. The Q's took it early but finished moderately lower. The A/D line continues to broaden and the market continues to catch a bid. Unlike the last couple of years, the broader market participation has been stellar and it seems every couple of weeks there is a rotation into a new group. The main focal point on Friday was the IWM which ended firmly in the green. Until this musical chairs of money rotation ends, there is no reason to believe that the bears have any semblance of control. There are two levels of support currently where dip buyers step in. Near the 9 and the 20MA's. It's important that the momentum continues and the market continues to churn higher as we've broken our downtrends (for now).