Facebook (FB) will report fourth quarter results this afternoon (4:05).

After beating revenue estimates twelve consecutive quarters, Facebook has missed on the top line two quarters in a row.

Third quarter revenue grew 33%, the slowest rate on record, down from 42% in the second quarter and 49% in the first quarter. 

Analyst expect Q4 EPS down 1% to $2.18 with revenue up 26% to $16.4 billion. Facebook implied fourth quarter revenue would grow ~23-28%.

S&P Capital IQ Consensus calls for fiscal 2019 EPS flat at ~$7.42 with revenue up 24% to $68.5 billion and operating margins down nearly 8% to ~37%.

FY18 EPS growth is expected to come in at 20% with revenue up 36%. The Street expects 1Q19 rev to grow ~24% (mgmt may offer guidance on the call).


With a $422 markt cap, the stock trades at just over 10 EV/EBITDA, 15x operating profit or 19x EPS estimates for 2019.

The weekly options are pricing in a ~7% move by Friday.


Facebook beats by $0.20, beats on revs  

  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.38 per share, $0.20 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $2.18; revenues rose 30.4% year/year to $16.91 bln vs the $16.4 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus; expenses +62%; operating margins -9% to 46%.

  • Daily active users (DAUs) -- DAUs were 1.52 billion on average for December 2018, an increase of 9% year-over-year. 

  • Monthly active users (MAUs) -- MAUs were 2.32 billion as of December 31, 2018, an increase of 9% year-over-year. 

  • "we estimate that around 2.7 billion people now use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, or Messenger each month, and more than 2 billion people use at least one of our Family of services every day on average... We've fundamentally changed how we run our company to focus on the biggest social issues, and we're investing more to build new and inspiring ways for people to connect."


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