Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) estimates are at $0.56 EPS on $1.02 billion in revenue. 

Comparing that to last year's stats around the same time, URBN had an EPS of $0.60 and $1.01 billion in revenue. In 2016, the stock is up nearly 22% and shares of URBN are trading at $27.99/share. 

Currently, the retailer is worth about $3.2 billion and has a massive growth trajectory worth investing in. The firm has a $30 price objective and buy rating from Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch due to its unique private third-party apparel selections. If its stock gets cheaper, private companies would be heavily interested in owning Urban Outfitters.

Urban Outfitters has managed to shrink its float nearly 20% by buying its stock on and off for the past four years and accumulated its total earnings. 

Monthly Comps

  • On January 7, co reported Nov/Dec net sales were flat y/y

    • Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 2% at Free People and decreased 2% at Urban Outfitters and the Anthropologie Group, respectively. Wholesale segment net sales increased 40% partially due to delayed shipments from the third quarter carrying over into the fourth quarter. Co is now current on all Wholesale segment shipments and does not anticipate any further delays.

  • On December 8, co disclosed retail segment net sales in low single digit negative

Q3 Recap

  • URBN reported EPS in-line on revs of $825.5 mln vs then- Capital IQ Consensus of $869.6 mln. The co had already fallen through support and sold off more than 20% in the week leading up to ER. The co initially gapped down 12% in extended hours trading, and it eventually ended the day down ~4% at $21.8. The Co has been on a tear in the last month, in conjunction w/ the rest of the teen retailers, and has regained the $28 level heading into earnings today.

  • Doesn't anticipate further sales misses due to delayed shipments

  • Negative comps in retail segment resulted from decreased transaction and units per transaction; partially offset by higher ASPs
  • Traffic was down at comp stores
  • Comps by brand
    • Free People: +3%
    • Urban Outfitters: +1%
    • Anthropoplogie: flat
  • October was weakest sales comp of quarter, and co noted that it had worsened during 1H of November
  • Combined North American store traffic was down 6% YoY for quarter
  • Sees double-digit sales increases in wholesale for Q4

Analyst Commentary

  • Robert Baird had an Outperform rating with a $29 price target.
  • RBC Capital has a Sector Perform rating with a $25 price target.
  • Brean Capital reiterated a Buy rating with a $32 price target.

On March 3, Wunderlich reiterated its Hold rating. Wunderlich stated, "We have so far seen the teen segment face material pressure in 4Q from warmer weather, mediocre offerings, and a consumer still focused on bargains. Frankly, we believe Urban Outfitters has the potential to be impacted by all of these factors, with additional negatives from FX and weak tourist traffic. With somewhat weak initial Spring offerings, we see very limited upside and do not believe management will be optimistic in the near term; we remain on the sidelines. "

Its analyst price target is at $26.93 today, with a 52-week trading range of $19.26 to $47.25 and over the past 52 weeks the stock is actually down about 29%. 


Urban Outfitters beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line

  • Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.61 per share, $0.05 better than the Consensus of $0.56; revenues rose 0.2% year/year to $1.01 bln vs the $1.02 bln Consensus.
  • Comparable Retail segment net sales, which include comparable direct-to-consumer channel, decreased 2%. Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 2% at Free People and decreased 2% at the Anthropologie Group and 3% at Urban Outfitters. Wholesale segment net sales increased 29% partially due to delayed shipments from the third quarter carrying over into the fourth quarter.

  • "While apparel sales underperformed during the fourth quarter, I am pleased with the merchandise margin improvement delivered by the brands," said Richard A. Hayne, Chief Executive Officer. "Additionally, our expansion categories performed above our expectations and continue to give us confidence in our future growth opportunities," finished Mr. Hayne.
  • As of January 31, 2016, total inventories decreased by $28 million, or 8%, on a year-over-year basis. The decrease in total inventories is primarily related to the decline in comparable Retail segment inventories, which decreased 6% at cost and 8% in units.