We have seen this type of scenario play out to upside breakouts
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$SPY
The FOMC cut the target range for the fed funds rate for the first time since 2008
The FOMC decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. ET today.
One of the most important things to do as a trader is to revisit your past
Our fathers were our models for God.
When we broke down in February we were at the highest RSI reading in history.
Since 1950, there had never been a down year for the market when the S&P 500 has gained at least 4.0% in January until this one.
Starbucks (SBUX) will report Q2 earnings this afternoon (16:05 last quarter) with a conference call to follow at 4:30 PM ET
NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to report Q4 results tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. NVDA is expected to report results at 4:20pm ET.Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $0.98 on Revenue of $2.10 bln.
There is little concern that FB will miss estimates this evening. FB is expected to provide an outlook for its Expense Guidance which is expected to come in well above the 2016 outlook of 40-45%.
No stock is as anticipated, nor will be scrutinized more closely, than the results from Apple, which will report after Tuesday's close
Current Quarter Expectations: As usual, operating income and revenues estimates are near the upper end of AMZN's prior guidance.
As I've been telling you guys for months now, the rate increase is not likely to occur in June and most likely to occur in July. My rationale for this has always been two fold: 1) Brexit and 2)A rate hike now is too soon and one in September is too close to the election. Last week's data gave the markets a quick rattle but by the end of it investors and traders had been calmed by the depreciation in likelihood that the Fed would move in June. Well like a kid turning his homework in late, the market seems to be peeking over its shoulder at the Brexit event looming. With that, the market is pricing a lower possibility for a rate hike in June.
That said, we are sitting at 2100 with the potential of an all time high breakout in the stock market. My bias is that we will eventually take out the highs, continue to rally and cause capitulation before ultimately falling apart. So for now, the pain trade remains to the upside until a catalyst occurs to "shake things up". With that in mind, I'm focusing primarily on stocks that are poised for higher. Below are the SPY charts to keep an eye out including a FIBS chart for potential resistance.
AMZN
Winner winner. 717 support.
AAPL
Could be at support retest, could be a cup and handle, could be a rollover. It all depends on how 97.5 will hold.
ADBE
Support retest held. This should be a long so long as this holds. Rising MA's should push this higher moving forward. 100.30 is the breakout.
AMBA
Heavy short interest, zero debt, channel break, and now an issued buyback. This should catch gas to the flames soon and continue its way higher. Read this post if you are interested in swinging this name and/or want more details.
BMY
This name is itching for a breakout. Here is your level.
HON
Flagging with 112 as support. Look for continuation.
ICE
Backtest of the breakout. Ready to rip again.
LLL
Strongest sector on the board at the moment. After months of consolidation, this sector is set to go. This one may get extended quickly so tread lightly.
MGM
Broke out of multi-month downtrend. Add it to your bullish list. Lowest Macau exposure of all the casinos. 24.35 will lead to further upside.
PLAY
Clear downtrend about to break on all time frames. Extremely bullish chase if that occurs.
PCLN
Faked a breakdown and took off. It has been in an uptrend ever since. If this plays like the market has been of late it's poised to fill the gap into the 1317 1331, and 1340 levels and possibly beyond.
RTN
One of the strongest names in the strongest group. This had 28 weeks of consolidation. Look for a continued breakout.
SM
Still ready.
With nearly four weeks of sideways to downside action the pundits would have you think that the market is on the verge of falling apart. The talking heads (for the most part) have you convinced that the sky is falling and that the world economy is abysmal. Hypothetically speaking, even if we are in an outright terrible place in the economy the market doesn't care. Markets unintentionally forecast several months in advance. So with that said, price is truth. Know what you're trading off of and you will be okay. Either direction. I want to be clear and advocate that I am not saying everything is rosey or that they are wrong. I'm simply saying; "Who gives a shit?"
We're not in the business of being "right" we're in the business of making money. Leave the
"being right" to the morons on television who need to fill their ego since they can't fill their bank accounts with their "trading"
SM
After a rest, this name is nearing a breakout and is almost set to resume its trend higher.
ZG/Z
Renewed strength with a well defined post-ER range. Keep this one on your list for a potential breakout.
YELP
This name has founded a rejuvenation. Currently flagging and poised for higher on a breakout.
NFLX
Aggressive call buying and at the lower end of is two year range. Strip out the competition bullshit and just look at the price action. A break of 94 sets this for round two.
TSLA
Here are the levels. Nothing more needs to be said.
XBI LABU IBB
XBI (and in some respect the IBB) has been building a weekly base and is poised for higher highs. The next several weeks will be key in the space as many of these names report vital data that will surely serve as a catalyst.
AAPL
Buffet bottom seems to be the theme here. Look for it to press up to the edge of the gap. Look for the part makers to catch a bid as well.
AMZN
The retail killer and giant has been basing for round two.
TWTR
The giant put seller has seemingly put a bottom in this stock. With volume pops in the name, this stock seems poised to break out. Using 14 as a stop this is worth a long. Look for 14.6 as the breakout level.
QCOM
Multi-month breakout. Look for follow through.
Unlike many other companies, expectations for Facebook remain quite high. Failure to meet those expectations could cause a material decline in its stock, which is up 31% over the last 52 weeks.
Ad spending drives Facebook's top line, accounting for 95% of the company's revenue in 2015. FB is a barometer for how advertisers are spending and where they are allocating their advertising budgets.
Facebook has a large international presence with 86% of its 1.59 billion monthly active users at the end of 2015 residing outside the U.S. and Canada and 50% of its total 2015 revenue derived outside the U.S. and Canada. Facebook, then, will have some revealing insight to share on global economic activity and the impact of foreign currency on its operating results.
Facebook is a leadership stock for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The company and its stock serve as guides for the enthusiasm surrounding the growth of social media
- Facebook had 1.59 billion monthly active users as of December 31. Any company with that many users/customers warrants a closer look when it reports earnings.
FB 4th Quarter:
- Daily active users (DAUs) were 1.04 billion on average (+17% year-over-year); mobile DAUs were 934 million on average (+25% year-over-year)
- Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.59 billion (+14% year-over-year); mobile MAUs were 1.44 billion (+21% year-over-year)
- The average price per ad was up 21% while total ad impressions increased 29% year-over-year; that was the first quarter since Q3 2013 that total ad impressions increased on a year-over-year basis
- Faces tougher comparisons given the strong 2015 performance
- 2016 will be another significant investment year for Facebook
- Guidance
- Non-GAAP expense growth of ~45-55% year-over-year
- Sees capex in the range of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion
- Expects to see FX headwinds, particularly in the first half of the year due to tougher comparisons
Tough to be short this stock into earnings, especially at this point.
Affected Stocks:
- FB
- Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)
- Twitter (TWTR)
- LinkedIn (LNKD)
- Yelp (YELP)
- PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ)
- Global X Social Media Index ETF (SOCL)
FB is largest holding at 12.3% of assets
RESULTS:
Facebook beats by $0.15, beats on revs
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.15 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.62; revenues rose 51.8% year/year to $5.38 bln vs the $5.26 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
- Advertising revenue increased 57% y/y to $5.2 bln.
- Daily active users (DAUs)- DAUs were 1.09 billion on average for March 2016, an increase of 16% year-over-year.
- Mobile DAUs- Mobile DAUs were 989 million on average for March 2016, an increase of 24% year-over-year.
Monthly active users (MAUs- MAUs were 1.65 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 15% year-over-year.
Mobile MAUs- Mobile MAUs were 1.51 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 21% year-over-year.
- Mobile advertising revenue- Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 82% of advertising revenue for the first quarter of 2016, up from 73% of advertising revenue in the first quarter of 2015.
- Capital expenditures- Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2016 were $1.13 billion.
- Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2016 was $1.85 billion.
🔥🔥MONSTER QUARTER, AGAIN. THEY'RE KILLING THEIR "COMPETITION"🔥🔥
Facebook announces proposal of new class of stock
FB announced that the board of directors has approved a proposal to amend and restate existing certificate of incorporation to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, known as the Class C capital stock.
If approved, it will issue two shares of Class C capital stock as a one-time stock dividend in respect of each outstanding share of our Class A and Class B common stock. This proposal is designed to create a capital structure that will encourage Mr. Zuckerberg to remain in an active leadership role at Facebook.
“The adoption of the proposal is subject to the approval of our stockholders at our 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on June 20, 2016.”
Facebook Conference Call Highlights
- Apps continue to show momentum.
- Mobile continues to drive growth.
- Mobile ads being driven by supply and demand; demand- investments to improve solutions
Q1 Avg Price per ad increased 5%; total ad impressions increased 50%; strong growth in mobile ad impressions.
- Will face tougher comps in 2016 given acceleration of ad growth in 2015
- Payment fees revenue will also see headwind even with Oculus; expects y/y decline.
- Expense Outlook remains unchanged at Non-GAAP growth of 45-55%; Amortization will be $700-800 mln; SBC $1.1-1.3 bln in 2016; CapEx will be at the high end of $4.0-4.5 bln range previously given; Q2 and FY16 tax rates should be similar to Q1.
FB breaks through all time high on stellar report, again.
$FB prints 119.44 ALL TIME HIGH after hours.